This week's macro outlook: CPI data to test the Fed's pause stance, Warsh's IMF speech in focus.

BlockBeats news, October 12 — This week, global markets will focus on the U.S. September CPI data to test whether the Federal Reserve maintains its stance of "non-consecutive rate hikes." Although most officials believe another rate hike is possible within the year, recent statements indicate no rush to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for an October 28 rate hike has dropped to about 19%, while a December hike is fully expected. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran standoff and escalating situation in Yemen continue to support the oil price risk premium, while the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement has limited short-term impact. Key events are as follows:

Tuesday:

Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks;

Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India;

U.S. September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP employment for the week ending September 26, September existing home sales annualized;

OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Wednesday:

U.S. September CPI and core CPI;

Intensive Fed speeches ahead of the release of the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Bowman speak;

IEA releases its monthly oil market report.

Thursday:

U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9;

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices;

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting.

Friday:

Fed Chairman Warsh attends the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;

Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks again;

U.S. September import price index, industrial production;

U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.