Bitcoin's annualized volatility drops to 46%, yet the number of extreme market movements this year has already surpassed the 2018 bear market.

BlockBeats news, October 10 — Bitcoin has already seen 10 "3-standard-deviation" trading days so far in 2026, surpassing the 8 recorded during the entire 2018 bear market. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has dropped from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme moves are still occurring frequently relative to recent price fluctuation levels.

"3-standard-deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from their recent normal trading range. Data shows that the average gain or loss in such extreme moves for Bitcoin this year was about 7%, lower than about 10% in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been about 47%, similar to Nvidia's, but over the same period Bitcoin recorded 26 "3-standard-deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8, the S&P 500's 16, and gold's 12.

Market participants noted that macroeconomic shocks and leverage and position concentration in the derivatives market are important factors behind the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell large amounts of options and bet that the market will remain calm, sudden news can force concentrated unwinding of related positions, further amplifying price swings.

Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risk under extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. At the same time, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also strengthening the market's ability to withstand shocks, but that does not mean extreme volatility will disappear as a result.