Three smart money investors positioned early for the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, with their portfolio showing a floating profit of 255%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 7, the 10-year yield rose to 5.36% intraday, hitting a new high since 2002. On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts with outstanding performance in the Treasury sector bought early in the "10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 5.5%" market, and their current portfolio unrealized gain exceeds 255%. The probability of "yield reaches 5.5%" is currently 52%.

HDGB bought $1.7k "Yes" at a buy probability of 15.16%. It has made a total of 39 trades in the Treasury sector, with an 87% win rate, PnL +$7.7k, and this investment was 5.25 times its median investment.
CAQZeroSeats bought $983.63 "Yes" at a buy probability of 10.76%. It has made a total of 12 trades in the Treasury sector, with a 50% win rate, PnL +$680.42, and this investment was 8.16 times its median investment.
chefradish bought $708.24 "Yes" at a buy probability of 20.95%. It has made a total of 13 trades in the Treasury sector, with a 62% win rate, PnL +$4.5k, and this investment was 2.83 times its median investment.

Recent upward pressure has mainly come from oil prices returning above $100, inflation concerns, government debt supply, and large-scale financing by AI companies competing for long-term funds. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting also showed that most officials expect another rate hike may still be needed this year. The median year-end yield in a Reuters survey was about 5.00%, but most respondents believed risks were skewed above the forecast value.

The next three most important nodes are CPI on October 14, the Federal Reserve meeting from October 27 to 28, and the Treasury Department's quarterly refunding plan in early November. If inflation runs hot, oil prices continue to rise, and long-bond supply increases, yields may complete the final 22 basis points; if inflation cools, the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, and strong auction demand continues, then they may fall back again.