Grayscale: Bitcoin gains are highly concentrated in a few trading days, and staying out also carries opportunity cost.

BlockBeats news, October 6 — Grayscale research director Zach Pandl wrote that over the past three years, Bitcoin's cumulative return was approximately 225%, while the Nasdaq index returned 109% over the same period. However, Bitcoin's gains were not evenly distributed; a small number of the strongest trading days contributed disproportionately to long-term returns, making it harder for investors to time entry.

Data shows that if Bitcoin's five best-performing trading days are excluded, its three-year cumulative return would fall from 225% to 95%; excluding the best 10 trading days would reduce the return to 27%; and missing the best 15 trading days would turn the three-year return into a loss of 11%. By contrast, the Nasdaq's return distribution is more balanced: excluding the best 15 trading days, its cumulative return would fall from 109% to 21%.

Grayscale said that during this period, less than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains that excluding them would cut Bitcoin's cumulative return by more than half. For assets with high return and high volatility characteristics, staying out of the market also carries opportunity cost; because the best trading days are difficult to predict reliably, by the time investors wait for volatility to decline or the market outlook to become clearer, part of the price re-rating may already be complete.