Next week's macro outlook: Fed minutes will reveal December rate hike divisions, whether G7 reserve release can push oil prices down becomes the focus.

BlockBeats news, October 3rd — U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs this week, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the August figure was also revised down by 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the nonfarm payrolls release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October cooled noticeably. CME's "FedWatch" data showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose to 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike in December was 66.1%. At the same time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.36%, and the dollar index hit a 17-month high.

Next week, market focus will be on the minutes of the Fed's September meeting, the G7's release of strategic petroleum reserves, long-end U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other events.

On the Fed side, the minutes of the September meeting will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. As the market has largely shifted its focus from "whether there will be a rate hike in October" to "whether there will be a rate hike in December," the discussion in the minutes on inflation and employment risks, officials' disagreements over further rate hikes and pausing hikes, and whether the wording is more hawkish or more dovish compared with post-meeting remarks will be the core points of interest. In addition, Fed Governor Bowman and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will also speak next week.

In the bond market, the U.S. Treasury Department will announce the size of its 20- to 30-year Treasury buyback operations and conduct auctions of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at a more than 20-year high, and the scale of the Treasury's buybacks and demand for government bonds will become important variables for observing the trend in long-end yields.

In the energy market, the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves to ease energy supply pressure. The International Energy Agency will coordinate the related supply. At the same time, the market expects OPEC+ to keep its November production target unchanged, but disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz have not been completely eliminated, and oil prices may continue to remain highly volatile in the short term.

On gold, although weak nonfarm payrolls reduced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, gold prices failed to extend their gains, with spot gold falling nearly 2% this week. The market is still being suppressed by rising U.S. Treasury yields, and whether gold can regain momentum next week still requires attention to changes in long-end rates and geopolitical developments.

On the data front, the U.S. September ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00 on Monday, with a market expectation of 55.1; the preliminary U.S. October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released on Friday, with a market expectation of 47.6. In addition, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its September meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak, and the Reserve Bank of India will also announce its rate decision.

In the U.S. stock market, next week enters a lull before the third-quarter earnings season, and the impact of macroeconomic variables on market pricing may further increase. The market will continue to focus on the effects of AI capital expenditure, energy costs, and the financing environment on corporate earnings, while whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can fall back from a more than 20-year high will remain an important variable for growth stock valuations and risk asset performance.