Tonight, the U.S. September nonfarm payroll data is released, with prediction markets and Wall Street showing significant divergence.

BlockBeats news, September 30 — As the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report is about to be released, prediction market traders are betting that job growth will exceed Wall Street economists' consensus expectations. According to Kalshi data, the market sees a nearly 60% probability that U.S. September nonfarm payrolls will increase by more than 90,000, while the probability of job growth exceeding 100,000 is about 50%.

However, Wall Street investment banks are generally cautious in their assessments of September nonfarm payrolls. Goldman Sachs expects September nonfarm payrolls to rise by 80,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Bank of America expects September job growth of only 60,000, including 50,000 in the private sector.

The above forecasts show that Wall Street banks are not broadly betting on a sharp rebound in September employment, and some institutions even expect job growth to be significantly below the market consensus, highlighting a clear divergence between prediction markets and traditional macroeconomic forecasts.

On Tuesday, after New York Fed President Williams played down the urgency of a rate hike, federal funds futures showed that the market-implied probability of another rate hike next month fell from about 71% to 50%. The September employment report may be especially important in breaking this deadlock in rate-hike pricing.