Wintermute: Bitcoin Faces First Test After Breakout, $82,500 Becomes Key Level to Watch

BlockBeats news, September 29 — Wintermute stated in a post that on the macro front, risk assets extended their gains last week. Even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, the market still showed no obvious risk-off sentiment. Crypto assets led the rally, with altcoins rising about 5% overall, followed by BTC, while the Nasdaq also posted gains, and U.S. Treasuries with maturities of more than 20 years were the weakest performers.

The report argues that oil prices will become a key factor affecting rate hike expectations for October. At present, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices near $103 per barrel. If oil prices remain around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may stay elevated, and the core question will then shift to whether risk assets can digest further near-term rate hikes while bonds remain under pressure.

In the crypto market, BTC's weekly chart last week closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time. The current $82,500 level is the upper edge of the previous range and is also a key level to watch this week; if this level holds, it could serve as the basis for the previous breakout, otherwise a drop below it would renew focus on the validity of the breakout. At the same time, BTC's market dominance has risen, altcoin rally breadth is already at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase allocations to year-end low-delta call options and call spreads.