Analysis: Bitcoin's realized profits fell 19%, with profit-taking weaker than in August.

BlockBeats news, September 29 — CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that although Bitcoin's price rose further to around $87,000, profit-taking strength was actually weaker than in August. During the second rally peak, realized profits were 19% lower than at the first rally peak, while realized losses also declined. Data shows that on August 26, at the first rally peak, BTC price was about $78,600, and the past 7-day realized profit reached $9.1 billion; on September 24, at the second rally peak, BTC price rose to $84,100, but the past 7-day realized profit was only $7.3 billion, down 19% from the previous rally.

During the same period, the past 7-day realized loss fell from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. As of September 28, Bitcoin's past 7-day net realized profit was $4.3 billion. From the perspective of the short-term holder (STH) SOPR, since August 20, this indicator has remained above 1, meaning that BTC transferred by short-term holders is still overall in profit, but the profit margin is narrowing. At the August 26 peak, the profit margin corresponding to STH SOPR was 2.8%; at the September 23 peak, it fell to 1.6%; and as of September 28, it further dropped to 1%.

Axel Adler Jr pointed out that during BTC's pullback to $76,500 on September 17, STH SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, and the profit margin on BTC transferred by short-term holders briefly narrowed to 0.3%, but the indicator did not fall below 1, meaning short-term holders as a whole had still not turned to a loss state. Axel Adler Jr said that higher BTC prices did not bring larger-scale profit-taking, which may mean some holders are not in a hurry to sell and may be waiting for higher prices. However, this indicator alone cannot confirm that holders are necessarily waiting for higher prices. He pointed out that if BTC returns to the high of $87,200 again, with the cost basis of holdings unchanged, holders' unrealized profits will increase further. A deterioration signal worth watching going forward is STH SOPR falling below 1, while the realized profit and loss indicator turns negative.