How deep is a typical bull market correction? Two smart money predictions for BTC's trend this year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts have collectively invested $13.86 million in "Will BTC fall to $70,000 this year?"

Tokor bought $10,830 of "Yes" at a buy probability of 65.41%. They have made a total of 749 trades in the Bitcoin sector, with a 49% win rate, PnL +$87,700, and this investment is 61.76 times their median investment.

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf bought $3,030 of "Yes" at a buy probability of 29.75%. They have made a total of 4,782 trades in the crypto sector, with a 66% win rate, PnL +$480,200, and this investment is 2.81 times their median investment.

As of publication, BTC is approximately $82,900, still about 15.6% away from $70,000. If calculated from the early bull market high of approximately $87,400 on September 21, falling to $70,000 corresponds to a drawdown of about 19.9%.

If June's approximately $58,000 is taken as the starting point of a new round of price action, the approximately 20% decline from $87,400 back to $70,000 falls within the range that historical bull market corrections can cover. Glassnode statistics show that corrections during the 2023 to 2025 upward cycle were typically about 10.1%–23.6%, rarely exceeding 25%; in the earlier 2017 and 2020 to 2021 bull markets, phased corrections of 20%–40% were also not uncommon.