Think the contract leverage is too low? Whales predict extreme volatility in BTC.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account named greater-fools bought BTC falling to multiple price ranges within this year over the past three weeks, with a total investment of $87,300, and is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of $32,700. If BTC touches $45,000 within the year, the account's maximum profit would be $365,700.

According to TradingBeats' tracking through fund flows, this account simultaneously holds $2.42 million worth of 2x BTC short contracts on markets.xyz, and is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of $391,000.

On September 27, Bitfinex stated that over 1 million BTC is concentrated in the $84,000 to $86,000 range, forming key short-term resistance; if BTC successfully breaks above $86,000, market supply and selling pressure above will decline significantly. Meanwhile, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $2.98 billion over the past 7 trading days, with funds gradually absorbing supply in this area. This means that $84,000 to $86,000 could bring volatility or a pullback, but continued ETF inflows are also the main opposing force facing this set of deeply bearish trades.