Anthropic's odds of going public before the midterm elections have dropped from 70% to 27%. Can it still catch the trillion-dollar IPO wave this year?
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on September 18, the Wall Street Journal cited people familiar with the matter saying that Anthropic plans to further delay its listing from the market's widely expected October to November. Advisors prefer to wait longer in order to show investors third-quarter financial data and prove its commercial competitiveness after OpenAI releases Astra.
After the news was released, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Anthropic IPO before the end of November 15" fell from 70% to 27% over the past few days, and the probability of "launch before December" fell from 80% to 57%.
Tenebrus7 invested a total of $1.09k on "Can Anthropic IPO before December?" with "Yes", at a purchase probability of 70%.
Tenebrus7 trades at 90%+ as late-session trades. Its open trades without stop-loss/take-profit in the Anthropic sector total 4, with a win rate of 100%, PnL +$419.94, and this investment is 1.57 times its median investment.
Tenebrus7 trades at 90%+ as late-session trades. Its open trades without stop-loss/take-profit in the IPO sector total 5, with a win rate of 60%, PnL +$4.7k, and this investment is 14.54 times its median investment.
Anthropic's recent operating data is also reinforcing the narrative of a listing within the year. Axios and The New York Times reported that Anthropic's annualized revenue scale rose from about $65 billion in July to possibly more than $100 billion by the end of the year. Market rumors suggest that its IPO may seek up to about $100 billion in financing, corresponding to a valuation of about $2 trillion.
Factors currently supporting "Yes" include: the company has already confidentially submitted its S-1, has reportedly determined Nasdaq as the listing venue, investment banks and potential investors are continuing to advance preparations, and management is still signaling strong revenue growth.
