S&P 500 ETF surged 1.55% in a single day; how much more upside can SPY have this week?

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, U.S. stocks rose broadly on Monday. The S&P 500 gained about 1.5%, closing at $773.5. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rising to $780 this week climbed from 12% within the first half hour after Monday's open to 49%.

PippiTrader bought "Yes" in this market at a purchase probability of 15.89%. It has executed a total of 262 trades in the SPY sector, with a 64% win rate and a PnL of +$3.8k. This bet was 0.70 times its median bet size.

There were two main direct catalysts for the rally: oil prices and long-end U.S. Treasury yields both fell simultaneously. Brent crude dropped about 3.4% on Monday, retreating to around $100; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.01% to about 4.95%. Chip and AI heavyweight stocks led the gains as a result, with AMD up nearly 10%, Nvidia up about 2.3%, and the Nasdaq significantly outperforming the Dow.

Expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East are also part of the market narrative. The UN General Assembly is about to convene, and leaders and representatives from the United States, Iran, Gulf states, China, and other parties will appear intensively in diplomatic settings during the same period, leading the market to begin betting that the conflict may see negotiations or easing.