The proportion of US retail investors who are bearish has risen to 53%, and institutions say the contrarian indicator is approaching a rebound range.

BlockBeats news, September 20 — According to CNBC, as oil prices climb again and U.S. Treasury yields rise, bearish sentiment among individual U.S. stock investors has notably intensified. The latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that about 53% of respondents are bearish on U.S. stocks over the next six months, up about 14 percentage points from the previous week and the highest level since May 2025.

The proportion of bullish investors fell to less than 29%, down about 10 percentage points in a single week and the lowest in about a year. Against the backdrop of the Iran war, crude oil prices have risen again, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has held near 5% in recent weeks, becoming the main background for individual investors' concerns. Morgan's commodities team said it will stop trying to predict when and how the conflict will end.

Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, said that from a contrarian perspective, AAII's level of pessimism is approaching levels typically associated with market lows. Currently, only about 30% of constituents are above their 50-day moving average. If that proportion falls further below 30%, it could mean the market is entering oversold territory. CNN's Fear and Greed Index has also shifted from "Greed" a month ago to "Fear."

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, cautioned that investors should not overinterpret sentiment indicators, and that professional investors are more optimistic. However, he believes that based on AAII's contrarian indicator alone, the current market already has the conditions for a rebound. Lerner also believes that investors should not stop buying because of short-term sentiment indicators. The potential upside in the current long-term bull market still outweighs the downside risk, and the recent pullback in tech stocks could provide an entry opportunity.