Saudi oil pipeline repair timeline disputed from days to weeks, smart money predicts pipeline will not resume operation this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Jest55 spent $1.83k to predict that "Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline will not resume operations this month," buying at a probability of 44.36%, while the current probability of no resumption is 34.5%.

Jest55 focuses on tail-end trades above 90%, with 97 open trades in the geopolitical sector, a win rate of 72%, and a PnL of +$15.2k. This investment is 8.97 times their median investment.

On September 10, the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked by multiple drones in the Riyadh and Medina areas; the Saudi Ministry of Energy suspended operations on September 11 as a "precautionary measure," and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the attacks caused injuries and facility damage. The pipeline is about 1,200 kilometers long and recently handled an average of 4 million to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day for export, serving as Saudi Arabia's key alternative export route to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on September 15 that assessments are ongoing, but crude oil "should resume flowing within days"; if Saudi Arabia subsequently announces a partial resumption. However, in the same round of reports, sources estimated the repair period ranging from a few days to 5–6 weeks, and the Saudi government has so far not issued a resumption statement that meets settlement conditions.