Huobi HTX Chief Analyst: Fed's Hawkish Rate Hike Reshapes Policy Credibility

BlockBeats news, September 17 — Regarding the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled at its September FOMC meeting, Andy, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, pointed out that what truly deserves attention is the Fed's comprehensive hawkish pivot. In a rare unanimous vote, all 12 officials supported the move, and the dot plot clearly signals one more rate hike within the year, with tightening now a consensus.

The core signal from the meeting is that the Fed is sparing no cost to rebuild its anti-inflation credibility. The Summary of Economic Projections revised growth expectations upward and unemployment rate downward, reflecting confidence in a soft landing; however, the path for core inflation to decline has been significantly pushed back, indicating that senior officials have accepted the reality of "higher for longer." Chair Warsh's remarks were particularly pivotal, placing anti-inflation as the absolute priority — even with current economic fundamentals solid and oil price disruptions being supply-side factors, the Fed still chose to respond with a tightening posture. This "better too tight than too loose" stance has short-term pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar while suppressing gold.

For the crypto market, uncertainty has actually decreased. A clearer policy path helps compress risk premiums, which is not a bad thing for risk assets in the medium to long term. The key going forward lies in data validation: if employment and growth remain strong, rate hikes may continue but at a slower pace; if cracks appear in the economy, there is still room for a policy pivot. Overall, the Fed is trading short-term pain for long-term policy credibility.