Fed dot plot: 16 of 18 FOMC officials expect at least one more rate hike this year.

BlockBeats news, September 17 — The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections show that the median PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 through 2028 are 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, up from the June projections of 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2.0%; the median core PCE inflation forecasts are 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%.

On employment, the median unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 through 2028 are all 4.1%, below the June projections of 4.3%, 4.3%, and 4.2%. The median GDP growth forecasts are 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared with the previous 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%. In addition, the median GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts for 2029 are 2.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

The Fed's latest dot plot shows that 18 of 19 officials submitted dot plot projections (consistent with June), of which 16 believe rates should be raised again this year. Specifically, 4 officials believe a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is appropriate for 2026 (1 in June), 12 officials believe a cumulative 50 basis point hike is appropriate (5 in June), 2 officials believe a cumulative 25 basis point hike is appropriate (3 in June), 0 officials believe rates should remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this year (8 in June), and 0 officials believe a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is appropriate (1 in June).