Analysis: A 'dovish surprise' from the Fed is unlikely, Bitcoin support level at $68,000.

BlockBeats news, September 16: Bitcoin held below $76,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, near its lowest level since August 21. BTC/USD had earlier fallen to a monthly low of $74,960; after the CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate, market attention has shifted to the Fed's policy decision.

CME FedWatch data shows the market expects a nearly 93% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would lift the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%. The Kobeissi Letter said that since 2008, whenever rate hike expectations reached current levels, the Fed has chosen to raise rates; if it unexpectedly holds rates steady this time, it would be the largest dovish surprise at a routine policy meeting since 1994.

Glassnode said spot order book bid liquidity is moving closer to the current price, with $68,000 forming the next order book support, while the short-term holder composite cost basis is around $71,300. If the current range is lost and related buy orders are consumed, the next on-chain support may be at $62,000 to $65,000, a zone corresponding to the most recent on-chain transfer price for about 9% of Bitcoin's supply.