Among the 12 Fed presidents, the probability that none dissent on the interest rate decision is 36%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of the Polymarket market "No dissenting votes at the interest rate decision" is currently 36%, and the top holder of "No" is nonkenny90.

nonkenny90 bought $10.79k of "No" at an entry probability of 87.33%. They have made a total of 68 trades in the Fed interest rate sector, with a 90% win rate, PnL +$113.5k, and this position is 6.99 times their median bet size.

On July 29, the FOMC held rates steady by a 9–3 vote, with all three dissenting governors advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike: inflation has remained above the 2% target for an extended period, the labor market is still stable, and if action is delayed until inflation expectations become unanchored again, more aggressive tightening may be needed in the future.

This instead constitutes the "Yes" path for no dissenting votes in this market. Major institutions currently broadly expect a 25 basis point hike this time, and if Warsh delivers the hike, the three committee members who advocated for a hike in July will likely shift to supporting the majority decision, and the previous hawkish dissent will naturally disappear.

The "No" argument comes from committee members who previously supported holding rates steady: if some believe that one hotter-than-expected inflation reading is not enough to prove inflation is spiraling out of control again, or worry that a hike would cause unnecessary damage to growth and employment, they may instead vote to keep rates unchanged.