House Halts Trump's Military Action Against Iran, Smart Money Still Bullish on This Month's Crude Oil Trend

According to PolyBeats monitoring, over the past 24 hours, west77 placed $3,700 on "No" in "Will WTI crude oil fall to $95 within September?" at an average buy probability of 49.7%. The current "Yes" probability is 55.5%.

west77 has executed a total of 47 trades in the oil sector, with a 70% win rate and net profit of $8,800. This bet is 8.93 times the median size of their bets.

WTI futures are currently quoted at approximately $104.6, still needing to fall about 9.2% to reach $95. Crude oil has risen over 20% this month. Since the Houthi advance and attacks on Saudi oil pipelines, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects that Middle East supply disruptions will keep Brent averaging around $90 in the second half of 2026.

On September 15, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a war powers resolution 220 to 204 to restrict the President from continuing military action against Iran, reflecting rapidly rising political costs of the Iran war. The resolution has not yet become law, still requires Senate progress, and Trump is almost certain to veto it, so for now it can only create expectations of "future de-escalation" and cannot immediately remove actual supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.