New account predicts conflict between Israel and Iran will erupt this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, yesterday, 1 new account placed $1k on "No" in "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold this month?", with an average entry probability of 8.7%; the current "Yes" probability is 91.5%.

The account withdrew from Binance to a new wallet with no on-chain transactions, then used that wallet to fund this Polymarket account.

Under this market's rules, "No" resolves if Israel or Iran directly strikes the other's homeland or internal waters, and it involves airstrikes, air-launched weapons, surface-to-surface missiles, or attack drones.

Reuters reported on September 1 that the fragile ceasefire established in April has generally continued after brief exchanges of fire in June; on August 1, Trump also said Israel agreed to participate in a framework to push for ending the war. Although regional conflict is still escalating, there has not yet been a direct Israel-Iran exchange of strikes that meets the strict definition.

On September 3, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said that if Iran attacks Israel, the IDF will no longer be bound by existing restrictions and may strike Iran's energy and civilian infrastructure; on September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors again referred Iran's nuclear non-compliance issue to the UN Security Council, and Netanyahu subsequently said Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear capability.