Jukan: YMTC's Wuhan Fab 3 enters final sprint to production, NAND flash competition pressure may rise further.

BlockBeats news, September 15 — Citrini analyst Jukan posted on X platform that Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) has begun fully installing production equipment for its third wafer fab, Fab 3, in Wuhan, meaning the facility is entering the final stage before production, with initial operations expected to commence by the end of this year.

Jukan believes that the accelerated progress of Fab 3 is noteworthy, as YMTC continues to expand capacity while rapidly increasing its market share. Once Fab 3 reaches full capacity, it is expected to produce approximately 100,000 12-inch wafers per month, with further phased capacity expansion to follow as equipment continues to be moved in and yields improve.

Jukan pointed out that data from Counterpoint Research shows YMTC already accounted for 14% of global NAND bit shipments in the second quarter of this year, surpassing Kioxia to rise to third globally, trailing only Samsung Electronics at 25% and SK Hynix at 22%. If Fab 3's additional capacity is successfully released, supply competition in the flash memory market is expected to further intensify.

Jukan is particularly focused on YMTC's ability to increase the proportion of domestic equipment and continue expanding capacity under the backdrop of U.S. export controls. He believes this could allow YMTC to narrow the gap with traditional flash memory giants such as Samsung and SK Hynix at a faster pace.

Jukan cited industry insiders as saying that YMTC's capacity expansion is unlikely to immediately cause flash memory oversupply in the short term, but because it relies on China's domestic market to continuously expand output and share, it could become a competitive burden for existing flash memory manufacturers in the long run.