This week's macroeconomic highlights review: Fed rate hike expectations soar, oil prices return to $100.

BlockBeats news, September 12 – Over the past week, the global market narrative has centered on three themes: "inflation + war + rate hikes." U.S. August CPI reaccelerated, sharply raising market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting; Middle East tensions continued to escalate, pushing crude oil back above $100; and the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate hike, leaving major global central banks once again facing inflation pressure.

U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, with core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month. Combined with previously stronger PPI and employment data, the market widely expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points next week. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, and the dollar fell early in the week before rebounding.

Crude oil was one of the strongest-performing assets this week. As the Middle East conflict continued to spread to the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, compounded by attacks on Saudi energy facilities, Brent crude briefly broke above $100. Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was temporarily shut after an attack, further amplifying supply concerns. If shipping through Hormuz or the Red Sea continues to be disrupted, institutions including Goldman Sachs believe oil prices could still push higher.

The European Central Bank this week raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and warned that the Middle East conflict could keep inflation above its 2% target for an extended period. The market is now also betting on a further rate hike in December.

Politics has also become a market variable. At a Republican midterm election rally, Trump proposed that if Republicans continue to control Congress, every American adult citizen would receive a $5,000 "Trump dividend," with a potential cost exceeding $1 trillion, though the specific funding source and implementation method remain unclear.

On the Russia-Ukraine front, high-level U.S.-Russia contacts have increased, raising market expectations for a restart of negotiations, but military actions by both sides have not noticeably de-escalated. At the same time, U.S.-Canada trade friction continues to escalate, and potential measures such as auto tariffs could still further hit North American supply chains.

The tech market has seen another key theme: as the AI industry accelerates its expansion, concerns over security risks and a capital bubble are rising in tandem. Internal researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly discussed the risks of AI losing control and self-improvement, and whether AI investment can continue to generate returns is becoming a new focus for the market.

Overall, the core logic of the market this week has shifted from simply betting on economic growth to repricing the combination of "high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates." The future trajectory of risk assets will depend even more on energy prices and the Fed's policy path.