Ahead of tonight's CPI data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points this month is 69.4%.

BlockBeats news, September 11 — The U.S. August CPI data will be released in about 1 hour, potentially determining whether the Federal Reserve will begin its first rate hike in more than three years. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the current probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month is 30.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 69.4%.

The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision will take place on September 16 (2 AM Beijing time on September 17).

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. The market expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. This data will serve as an important reference for whether the Fed proceeds with its first rate hike in more than three years next week. The Fed's last rate hike was on July 26, 2023, when it raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 5.25%—5.50%.

The market is particularly focused on the core CPI month-over-month figure. Analysts believe that if core CPI rises 0.2%, it may provide room for keeping rates unchanged; if it rises 0.4%, it could significantly push policy toward a rate hike. If the figure comes in at 0.3%, traders may pay further attention to the unrounded data and subcategories such as housing, services, and core goods.