Crypto industry and banking sector battle for key senators as smart money predicts the Clarity Act will become law this year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, meagainsttheworld placed $800 on "Yes" for "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026," with an average entry probability of 16.0%, and the current "Yes" probability is 16.5%.

meagainsttheworld invested $800, and the best-related category for this market is Politics, with a net category profit of $84.8k. In this category, they have 601 settled trades with a win rate of 434/601 (72%), including 70 trades with an entry price below $0.8 and an exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost basis range ($0.101-$0.25), their median historical investment amount is $89.

The crypto industry and banking sector are lobbying key senators to influence the procedural vote on September 15. The crypto industry has invested over $190 million in 2026 political activities and elections, and Stand With Crypto supporters contacted congressional offices nearly 50,000 times in August alone.

The banking sector is demanding changes to stablecoin reward provisions, fearing that crypto platforms will package yields as trading or payment rewards to attract funds away from bank deposits. Republican Senators James Lankford and Mike Rounds have also warned that this could lead to deposit outflows and weaken credit supply.

The bill still does not resolve conflicts of interest involving government officials and their families participating in crypto businesses, and multiple Republican senators believe the current text may not secure enough votes. The National Sheriffs' Association shifted to neutral on September 4, but enforcement rules for illicit funds, decentralized finance protocols, and mixing services remain under negotiation.