PPI and CPI data land this week, with smart money confident that interest rates will remain unchanged this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, TwoEyes has invested $49.1k in "No" on "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month?" and $203k in "Yes" on "Will the Federal Reserve maintain interest rates unchanged this month?"

TwoEyes' best correlated sector with this market is the Federal Reserve interest rate sector, with a net profit of $215k in that sector. Its win rate across 40 settled trades in this sector is 26/40 (65%), among which 6 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.

The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on September 15-16 and announce its interest rate decision on the 16th. At the July meeting, 3 of the 12 officials supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the time.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on the 4th that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate rose to 61.6%. Reuters reported the same day that the stronger-than-expected jobs report has brought a September rate hike back into discussion.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on the 3rd that if inflation continues to cool in August, he supports keeping interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index on September 11. Reports indicate the Fed has entered its blackout period, and these two inflation reports will serve as the primary data variables ahead of the meeting.