Analysis: Bitcoin May Be Transitioning from a 4-Year Cycle to a 6 to 8-Year Cycle

BlockBeats News, September 3rd. On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a post stating that Bitcoin has always been influenced by the halving mechanism, forming a relatively regular 4-year cycle. However, as the diminishing impact of the halving on new supply continues to weaken, this endogenous cyclical factor is becoming smaller and smaller.

Woo pointed out that currently, the annual new BTC supply accounts for about 0.8% of the total supply, and it will further decrease to 0.4% in the future. At the same time, the short-term debt cycle in the traditional financial market usually lasts 6 to 8 years. Therefore, he believes that Bitcoin may be gradually transitioning from the previous 4-year cycle to a 6 to 8-year cycle. The current period may be in the transitional stage of this cyclical structural change.