Israel and Turkey Brush Shoulders in Syria, New Account Predicts Confrontation

According to PolyBeats data, on the prediction market Polymarket, 7 minutes ago, a new account placed a $3.1k bet on "Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Turkey this year?", with an average buy probability of 19.9%, causing the probability of "Yes" to increase from 14.0% to 25.0%.

On August 18, Israel launched an airstrike on the Abu Duhur airbase in northern Syria. The attack came a day after a Turkish delegation visited the base; the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Syria was preparing to allow Turkish forces to enter, prompting Israel to strike first. Turkey later condemned the attack, but the Turkish Ministry of Defense stated on August 20 that there were no Turkish military representatives at the base before or after the attack.

U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barak stated on August 18 that the U.S. is working to establish a stronger military deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Turkey, and Syria to prevent miscalculations in the future due to base, airspace, or troop movements. On August 23, Axios reported that Syria and Israel are trying to reduce tensions after the airstrike.

Regional strategic competition continues to intensify. On August 31, Israel and Greece signed a €30 billion "Achilles Shield" air defense system agreement, with both countries considering Turkey a key security variable in the Mediterranean region. Meanwhile, Turkey continues to assist Syria in rebuilding its military and military infrastructure, while Israel has repeatedly warned against Turkey's military presence expanding into southern Syria.
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