Risk Assets Retreat, Smart Money Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $85k This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $1.7k bet on "Will Bitcoin reach $85k this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 62.4%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" stands at 61.5%.

Another investor with the address x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf also placed a $1.7k bet, focusing on the Bitcoin category, with a net profit of $30.8k. Out of 417 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 180/417 (43%), with only 1 trade where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.

Bitcoin dropped to $76,979.55, down about 5.2% from the all-time high of $81,237.94 set on August 25. To reach $85k from the current price would require an increase of approximately 10.4%.

After the U.S. conducted another airstrike on Iran, Brent crude oil rose to $95.91 per barrel on September 2, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.8122%, and the U.S. Dollar Index reached its highest level since August 17. Energy inflation drove up expectations of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, leading Bitcoin to retreat along with global risk assets.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw around $3.06 billion in net inflows from August 17 to 31. Data from Farside Investors indicates net inflows of about $216.7 million on August 31, turning into net outflows of around $35.3 million on September 1. Belldex IBIT continues to handle the majority of fund inflows.

IG market analyst Tony Sicamore stated on August 25 that Bitcoin's sustained breakthrough of recent price ranges could pave the way to $95k–$100k. BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas noted that the subsequent trend would require confirmation from spot trading volume and ETF inflows, with Federal Reserve policy expectations and the U.S. dollar trend continuing to impact the year-end price.
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