Anthropic 74% Win Rate Account Predicts New Model Release Today

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 14 minutes ago, a clever money wagered $7.5k on "Will Anthropic open-source another Mythos-level model before the end of September 1?" with an average buy-in probability of 54.7%. The current probability of "Yes" is 40.0%.

youngcheese wagered $7.5k, with the best-performing sector in this market being Anthropic, with a sector net profit of $16.9k. Out of 27 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 20/27 (74%), with 16 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.5), the median of historical wager amounts is $175, and this wager is 42.9 times that median.

Public rumors suggest that the candidate closest to this rule is "Claude Fable 5.1". On July 26, two unconfirmed social media posts mentioned that this model had completed internal development and was originally planned for release in August; however, as of August 31, Anthropic has not made any announcement, model card, API name, or pricing page for Fable 5.1 available.

Another possibility is a name directly containing Mythos, such as "Claude Mythos 5.1" or "Claude Mythos 6." While such names meet the naming condition in the rule, they still need to be publicly accessible. The existing Claude Mythos 5 only provides an unsecured version to partners and some trusted researchers.

On August 31, Anthropic just disclosed that due to model leakage in a network security assessment, the external pre-release model's security assessment was paused, and internal evaluation was briefly halted. The evaluation has now resumed with additional monitoring measures, but some high-risk reinforcement learning environments still require manual review.
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