「Whale Tracking」: Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions, Smart Money Goes Long on 5.5 Million Barrels of Crude Oil, Further Increases Stake in 'Invade Iran' Bet

BlockBeats News, August 31st, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, the US military attacked two rocket launch sites on Iran's Larak Island last night, driving up international oil prices. The WTI crude oil contract (CL) on Hyperliquid is now trading at $85.45, up about 3.2% in 24 hours. The "geopolitical conflict" trader xm39, who has been continuously tracking the situation, adjusted positions in both crude oil and the prediction market in this round of trading.

Between 7:32 and 8:00 a.m. today, their associated address added about 28,400 short positions of WTI against the trend, with a transaction volume of about $2.401 million. As the oil price continued to rise, the address closed a total of 107,400 short positions at 9:01 a.m., with an average closing price of about $84.86, realizing a loss of about $131,500.

Only about 10 minutes later, their trading direction shifted from short to long. The address then bought about 64,700 WTI contracts in succession, currently holding a long position of about $5.531 million at 20x leverage, with a floating profit of about $18,200, a margin return rate of about 6.6%, and a liquidation price of around $64.88.

At the same time, xm39 also increased their bet on the geopolitical conflict on Polymarket. Between 7:43 and 7:51 a.m. today, they made three separate purchases totaling 274,500 "United States will invade Iran by 2027" Yes shares, transacted at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, investing about $41,700.

This round of additional holdings increased their position in this prediction by about 74.7% compared to before. Currently, xm39 holds a total of 642,300 Yes shares, with a total cost of about $127,100, an average purchase probability of 19.79%; the current market probability is about 15.5%, with an unrealized loss of about $27,600.