Serenity Increases Bullish View on Crystal High-Tech: DDR3 Price Surge Far Exceeds Seller's Expectations, ASP Doubles QoQ, Operating Leverage Fully Utilized

BlockBeats News, August 30th, Serenity published an analysis of the ESMT (3006) based on the seller's report: In March, Huaxi Securities estimated that ESMT's Q2 DDR3 4Gb contract price would increase by approximately +50% compared to the previous quarter, while Fubon Securities predicted a Q2 DRAM price increase of around +40%. However, by August, Huaxi had revised ESMT's Q2 overall ASP upward by around +105% to 113%, and clearly stated that the DDR3 price increase was "significantly better than expected." Serenity believes that the price increase of niche memory is no longer just a revenue story but a significant profit amplifier, with operational leverage maximized. Powerchip's wafer costs in the second half of the year may double, and customer willingness to accept cost pass-through far exceeds expectations.

ESMT's net profit in July was approximately $109 million, far exceeding earlier model assumptions. Based on this rough annualized estimate, the valuation could be as low as around 1.9x PE. DDR3 is mainly used in IP cameras, hard drives, and other products, with the storage chip accounting for a very low proportion of the customer's total BOM. Even if the chip is priced a few dollars higher, it is much lower than the cost of redesign and re-certification, making the demand relatively inelastic. The consensus logic is that peers will shift their capacity to high-value products such as HBM/DDR5, leading to a structural tightening of DDR3/DDR2 supply.