The U.S. dollar weakened, liquidity expectations increased, and Bitcoin Smart Money Predicted the Annual Trend

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money bought into the "Will Bitcoin hit $95k this year?" market, with the current "Yes" probability at 38.0%.

Account 1's top-related category in this market is cryptocurrency price, with a net profit of $6.2k. Out of 102 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 77/102 (75%), with 30 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. This investment represents 12.9 times the median of its historical investment amounts in a similar cost range.

In the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money invested $1.3k in the "Will Bitcoin hit $95k this year?" market with an average buy probability of 63.1%, and the current "Yes" probability is 38.0%.

Hazaswine invested $1.3k, with the top-related category in this market being cryptocurrency price, with a net profit of $6.2k. Out of 102 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 77/102 (75%), with 30 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), its median historical investment amount is $100, making this investment 12.9 times that median amount.

On the 20th, Reuters reported that the U.S. Treasury will double the size of some long-term bond repurchases, with a single transaction size increased to at least $4B. This measure pushed down long-term bond yields, leading to a weaker dollar. Investors refocused on the dollar's purchasing power and U.S. government debt, driving funds into Bitcoin and gold.

On the 21st, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF received about $1.6B in net inflows in the first four trading days of the week. The Block's data on the 22nd showed total weekly inflows reaching $1.9B, marking a record high in 2026. The weekly trading volume of the spot Bitcoin ETF rose to $22.1B.

Over the past week, inflows into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continued to concentrate in IBIT under BlackRock. Based on Farside Investors' daily data, between August 24 and 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw total net inflows of about $1.5B, with IBIT contributing around $1.3B, representing the majority of the market inflows; other ETFs saw significantly smaller inflows, with some products experiencing outflows.

Reuters reported on the 26th that the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose by 3.7% year-on-year, while the core inflation rate remained at 3.3%. The September rate hike expectation, reflected in the Fed funds futures, increased to 44%. The market is awaiting a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium.
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