Shorting Nasdaq Before Buying "Insurance"? Whale Betting on Rate Hike Expectation, Potentially Gaining Million-Dollar Short Position with 4% Slippage

BlockBeats News, August 25th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, Polymarket trader "TwoEyes" consecutively bet for four days that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September, but today reversed course to short the Nasdaq.

From the morning of August 22nd to the early morning of the 23rd, TwoEyes made about 149 buy transactions totaling approximately $113,700, betting that the interest rate will remain unchanged in September, with a weighted probability of approximately 68.42% at the time of purchase. Early this morning, with an average probability of 67%, they invested about $10,050 to continue betting that there will be no 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September. The total additional investment in two rounds is approximately $123,700.

As of the time of writing, the probability of "interest rate unchanged in September" is 66.5%, and the probability of "no 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September" is 67.5%. The total cost of their two core positions is approximately $151,200, with a current total unrealized loss of about $4,168.

At 4:00 a.m. this morning, about 6 hours after the latest round of prediction market positions were closed, their associated address started establishing a short position on the Nasdaq on Hyperliquid.

Currently, the address is shorting 51.6369 units of XYZ100 at 30x leverage, with a position value of approximately $1,510,800; XYZ100 is currently trading at 29,258 points, with an unrealized loss of about $10,800, a return rate of approximately -21.69%, and a liquidation price of 38,444.8 points.

After combining the two positions, the $151,200 prediction position has purchased a limited upside insurance for this tenfold $1.51 million Nasdaq short position.

If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in September, the total cashable amount for the two core prediction positions will be approximately $220,200; based on the current position costs and excluding fees, the maximum profit is about $69,100.

For each 1-point increase in the Nasdaq short position of 51.6369 units, there is a loss of about $51.64. The potential profit from this prediction can cover an increase of about 1,337.5 points, equivalent to around 4.6% of the entry price of 29,048 points, with a static breakeven point of about 30,385.5 points.

As XYZ100 has now risen to 29,258 points, consuming about 210 points of buffer. Based on the current price, in the event of the "interest rate unchanged in September" outcome, the remaining profit from the prediction position could cover approximately 1,127.5 points, representing a 3.85% misjudgment in upside potential.