A whale hedges a $16 million BTC short position with "insurance," putting nearly an equal amount in Polymarket
BlockBeats News, August 18th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, trader "LucasMeow" currently holds a total of approximately $15.889 million in BTC and ETH short positions on Hyperliquid, while also allocating around $46.67 thousand on Polymarket, setting up a cross-platform "insurance" hedge.
He is currently shorting 100 BTC with 40x leverage, with a position value of around $6.412 million; and also shorting 5000 ETH with 25x leverage, with a position value of around $9.477 million. The total unrealized profit of these two short positions is approximately $503 thousand, with a margin of around $539 thousand.
On the Polymarket side, he has allocated around $104 thousand betting that BTC will not drop to $15,000 to $45,000 within the year across six price ranges, around $48.2 thousand betting that ETH will not drop to $800, and another $314.5 thousand betting that Satoshi Nakamoto will not move BTC within the year.
The total cost of these eight prediction positions is approximately $46.67 thousand, which is already equivalent to 86.5% of the current margin of the two short positions. However, since the corresponding events at the time of purchase were already high probability "No" positions, even if all are ultimately realized, the total profit ceiling is only approximately $5.08 thousand.
Based on static calculations, if the BTC short position rises to its $96,715.7 liquidation price and ETH rises to a liquidation price of $2542.59, the total liquidation will be around $5.993 million. The maximum profit of the prediction positions is only approximately 0.85% of the above.
At the same time, "LucasMeow" has set two non-reduced sell orders for BTC at $62,277 and $61,500, planning to short an additional 125 BTC, with a nominal value of around $7.715 million, showing a clear bearish bias overall.
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