Flight 14 does not yet have a firm date, but SpaceX's smart money is betting Starship's 14th flight test will lift off no earlier than September 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, one savvy investor has put in $2.9k on the question "Will SpaceX Starship's 14th Flight Test launch before September 15?" choosing "Yes", with an average buy-in probability of 70.8%. The current probability for "Yes" is 77.5%.

Investor 0x244Ba241484B6AF2AD has put in $2.9k, with SpaceX as the top-related category in this market, resulting in a net profit of $3.6k. Out of 18 settled trades in this category, the investor has a win rate of 15/18 (83%), with 9 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.

SpaceX is tentatively planning Starship's 14th Flight Test at the end of August, with the timing before September 15. Elon Musk stated on August 4 that the company plans to execute the mission after regulatory approval. Flight 14 will attempt to launch the Starlink V3 satellites into operational orbit.

Flight 14 is expected to utilize Ship 41 and Booster 21. Ship 41 completed 2 cryogenic pressure tests on June 30 and started installing Raptor engines in late July. Booster 21 finished cryogenic testing on July 18–20. The next phase for the two-stage spacecraft will involve static fire and other pre-launch tests, with hardware progress pointing to a preparation window from late August to early September.

Flight 13 released 20 Starlink V3 satellites on July 24 and successfully completed a space engine reignition. Following atmospheric re-entry of the upper stage over the Indian Ocean, the heat shield system remained in good condition. SpaceX plans to attempt the first-ever launch tower catch of the Starship upper stage in Flight 14.
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