Galaxy Research Director: Probability of CLARITY Act Passing This Year Lowered to 10%, Political Discord Main Obstacle

BlockBeats News, August 16th, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated in a post that the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026 has been lowered to 10%. He believes that the core obstacles the bill currently faces are more related to politics rather than policy, including ethical restrictions on government officials involved in the cryptocurrency industry, opposition from the banking sector especially community banks, and controversies surrounding developer protection clauses.

Thorn pointed out that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled the Senate to hold its first vote on the CLARITY Act in mid-September, but the work window at that time is only about 2 to 3 weeks. If senators cannot immediately initiate the advancement process upon returning to Washington, the bill would almost need to occupy the entire work period to have a chance of passing in 2026.

Meanwhile, the U.S. SEC had originally planned to advance two crypto regulatory measures, Reg Crypto and the "Innovation Exemption," but recent delays have occurred. Thorn believes that the SEC had previously postponed action at least in part to avoid disrupting CLARITY Act negotiations, and with the bill's progress stalled, the SEC may expedite independent efforts to advance related regulatory frameworks.

Thorn expects that regardless of whether the CLARITY Act ultimately passes, the SEC may announce the specific texts of Reg Crypto, the "Innovation Exemption," or both in the coming weeks to months.