U.S. Inflation Slows Down, Smart Money Predicts Unchanged Rates in September

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 big brains have placed bets on "Will the Fed maintain the interest rate ceiling after the September 2026 meeting?" with a total of $42.7k wagered on "Yes." The average buy-in probability is 70.6%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 72.5%.

simpleman has wagered $25.2k, with the top related category being politics, with a net profit of $57.6k. Out of 1153 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 582/1153 (50%), with 288 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical wager amount is $100, making this bet 251.6 times the median.

BreadGet has wagered $17.5k, with the top related category being the Fed FOMC, with a net profit of $20.1k. Out of 6 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 5/6 (83%), with 2 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.8), the median historical wager amount is $18.6k.

On the 12th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July CPI data. The overall CPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Initial jobless claims for the week ending on the 209,000 people, with a 4-week moving average of 199,000, indicating that the labor market remains relatively stable. Reuters reported that the latest CPI data has reduced the urgency for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. Analysts still expect core PCE inflation to be above 3%.

On the 13th, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that the need for another rate hike is still uncertain, as the current policy rate is already at a relatively restrictive level, which may be sufficient to continue to suppress demand and gradually ease inflation.
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