Guangfa Securities: Intel's Additional Share Offering Expanded to $20 Billion, Management's Subscription Boosts Confidence, Maintaining $136 Price Target

BlockBeats News, August 14th. Guotai Junan Securities maintained its "Buy" rating on Intel with a target price of $136, believing that this equity financing sends a positive signal. Intel has increased the offering size from the original plan of $15 billion to $20 billion, with institutional demand reportedly exceeding $100 billion. The issue price is $95, and all the oversubscription rights have been exercised. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan and his family subscribed for approximately $12 million at the issue price. Guotai Junan Securities believes this reflects management's confidence in the company's prospects and is expected to support capital expenditure in the fiscal year 2027.

Guotai Junan Securities expects Intel's foundry business to break even in the fourth quarter of 2027, with profit margin leverage fully unleashed in 2028. The institution believes that the 18A process yield and progress in expanding external customers are robust, especially with Apple. Additionally, the EMIB customer base continues to grow, with advances in cooperation with Google and AWS. Guotai Junan Securities maintains its estimate of an 80% yield for the 18A process in the second quarter of 2026, noting that Clearwater Forest (CWF) has entered the mass production ramp-up phase, with particular attention to Apple's 14A high-volume production progress. If the break-even point for the foundry business is delayed to 2028, the main reason is expected to be increased investment demand.

In terms of the EMIB business, Guotai Junan Securities has raised Intel's backend business revenue expectations to $1.1 billion and $7 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively. This adjustment is mainly driven by the expectation that AWS Trainium3 will adopt EMIB-T in 2027, and Google's Humufish/Triggerfish is expected to enter production expansion from the second half of 2027 to 2028. Guotai Junan Securities also predicts that AWS and Microsoft's ASIC products may adopt EMIB in 2028. Intel has also gained support from Unimicron and plans to internally produce silicon capacitors.