Analysis: BTC New Buyers Approach Breakeven as 3-6 Month Holders Still Face Significant Loss Pressure

BlockBeats News, August 11th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that recently the BTC new buyer holding status is improving, with the 0-3 month BTC holders group approaching a breakeven point. However, the 3-6 month BTC holders are still in a deep unrealized loss state, with the current market pressure mainly concentrated on them.

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) of the 0-3 month holder group has risen to -0.02, nearing the breakeven level, showing a significant recovery from -0.13 since June; in contrast, the NUPL of the 3-6 month holder group remains at -0.14, indicating that the average holding cost of this group is still significantly higher than the current BTC price.

The Realized Cap Drawdown of the 3-6 month holder group continues to deteriorate, currently at -69.6%, the lowest level in the past 90 days, while for the 0-3 month group, this indicator is around -64%. This implies that although the pressure from the most recent buyers is easing, previous investors still face substantial unrealized losses.

He stated that the breakeven status of the 0-3 month holders is a positive signal for the market improvement, but a more widespread recovery will require the NUPL of the 3-6 month holder group to return to above zero, and for their realized cap drawdown to stop expanding and begin a sustained recovery. The main pressure from the young coins has now shifted from the newest buyers to the 3-6 month holder group.