Trader "xm39" liquidated his position just in time to avoid the crude oil price plummet, but reestablished a $10 million long position after the "halted trading" announcement.

BlockBeats News, August 3rd, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, predicted market trader "xm39" related address completely closed out 82,700 barrels of crude oil (CL) long positions on Hyperliquid on the evening of July 31st, with a transaction volume of approximately $6.904 million, at an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of about $97,000. Subsequently, the address maintained a crude oil short position for two days.

This exit timing happened to precede a signal of easing geopolitical tensions, "Trump later stated the halt of the original plan to strike Iran and intended to resume negotiations on issues such as opening the Strait of Hormuz" about a day earlier. Following the landing of this news, WTI crude oil fell by over 9% to $80 during the Asian session, hitting a three-week low.

Based on the closed 82,700 position, the average closing price, and the current price, a simple calculation shows that this exit saved about $317,000 in subsequent unrealized losses.

Shortly after the relevant news disclosure, xm39 re-established a long position on Sunday afternoon, first buying 38,400 contracts at an average price of $81.08; during this morning's continued oil price decline, an additional 86,700 contracts were added at an average price of $79.93.

As of the time of writing, the address is currently 20x leveraged long with 125,100 barrels of crude oil, with a position value of approximately $9.97 million, an average position price of $80.28, and an unrealized loss of about $75,000 (-15.0%); the liquidation price is $78.12, only about $1.56 away from the current price.

At the same time, the wallet controlled by the same entity at Polymarket continued to add to the "United States will invade Iran by 2027" Yes position this morning, buying 38,000 contracts at an average price of $0.20, investing about $7,600.

The related position has increased to 937,700 contracts, with a total cost of about $254,700; based on the current price of $0.205, the position value is approximately $192,200, with an unrealized loss of about $62,500, a loss of about 24.5%.

Exiting before the oil price plunge and then re-entering a long position after the geopolitical easing news, xm39 clearly has not fully embraced the current easing narrative. However, despite the multiple operational nodes corresponding to macro news events, no significant profits have been recorded.

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