Alibaba surpasses Kimi to take the top spot in China, AI Smart Money predicts Moonshot will not reverse course by the end of the month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 3 whales have invested $6.1k in the question "Will Moonshot have the best China AI model by the end of July 2026?" with an average buy probability of 75.8%. The current probability of "Yes" is 16.6%.

vinii has invested $2.7k, and the top-related sector in this market is Technology, with a sector net profit of $3.9k. Out of 598 settled trades in this sector, vinii has a win rate of 467/598 (78%), with 118 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median of vinii's historical investment amount is $18, and this investment is 152.0 times that median.

0x73653992 has invested $2.4k, and the top-related sector in this market is Artificial Intelligence, with a sector net profit of $38.6k. Out of 586 settled trades in this sector, 0x73653992 has a win rate of 337/586 (58%), with 126 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median of historical investment amount is $568.

0x876bb030 has invested $942, and the top-related sector in this market is Technology, with a sector net profit of $6.2k. Out of 119 settled trades in this sector, 0x876bb030 has a win rate of 61/119 (51%), with 36 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median of historical investment amount is $1.6k.

The event settlement adopts LMArena's Text Arena｜Overall leaderboard and requires closing Style Control. Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 Max Preview is currently ranked 13th on the overall leaderboard with a score of 1475±10, while Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Max is ranked 14th with a score of 1473±10. Alibaba is currently leading with the already ranked Qwen3.7 and does not need to wait for Qwen3.8 to join the leaderboard. Both models are still in the Preliminary stage, and new votes may alter the rankings before the snapshot.

On the 27th, Moonshot publicly disclosed the model weights and technical report of Kimi K3. The model has 28 trillion parameters and a 1 million Token context window. Its web frontend development capability has reached the top of the LMArena specialized leaderboard. The inference demand following the release of Kimi K3 briefly exceeded Moonshot's computational capacity, leading the company to pause new subscriptions.

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is inferred that the trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening positions at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0x1ee9a5fc09665909c0cce297c581703bfbb9197f
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
0x876bb030ddd424ef505ae02914024cf18c6a1703

Total Investment: $6.1k
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