Citrini Insight: Korean Manufacturers Cautious About 3D IC Commercialization, while Chinese ChangXin Takes Customization Route to Accelerate Market Positioning

BlockBeats News, July 25th, Citrini analyst Jukan quoted the latest industry analysis from ZDNet Korea, pointing out that the AI ​​semiconductor performance competition is transitioning from process miniaturization to advanced stacking technology. Vertical integration of logic and memory through 3D IC is becoming the key technology of the next generation. Samsung Foundry has recently seen a surge in inquiries about 3D IC, with almost every potential customer asking about this technology. However, Jukan believes that 3D IC is essentially based on single-fabricated DRAM, which fundamentally conflicts with the core business model of large-scale standardized production by Samsung and SK Hynix. The two Korean fabs are expected to be limited to preliminary research and remain cautious about full commercialization.

This structural hesitation has opened a window for niche players. Due to the difficulty of entering the HBM market due to US semiconductor restrictions, China's ChangXin Memory is using 3D IC as a differentiation breakthrough, choosing to target custom memory instead of engaging in direct competition with Korean fabs in the commodity DRAM market. South Korean semiconductor industry officials stated that China has already taken the lead in producing multiple 3D DRAM sample chips, and niche market participants like ChangXin and Winbond are likely to be the first to establish this market.

Analyst Jukan had previously pointed out that the NVIDIA CUDA moat is coming to an end, as the dissolution of software ecosystem barriers aligns with the trend of customization in 3D IC, the next-generation AI memory competition landscape may face a structural reshuffle.

Note: A niche market refers to a subdivision within a large market that mainstream players tend to overlook or are unwilling to enter. Niche players are companies focused on such a niche market.