Musk's Starship Aborts Launch One Second Before Liftoff, Smart Money Bets on Successful Splashdown Next Attempt

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money placed a $2.7k bet on "Will the SpaceX Starship successfully splash down in Starship Flight Test 13?" The average buy probability is 71.3%, and the current "Yes" probability is 71.5%.

Trader 0x0b34b69b placed a $2.7k bet, with SpaceX as the most relevant category in this market, resulting in a net profit of $2.3k. This trader has a 67% win rate in 39 settled trades in this category, including 8 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median of historical investment amounts for this trader is $26, making this current investment 102.7 times the median amount.

SpaceX's 13th Starship flight was aborted less than a second before liftoff. Live data on the 16th showed that 4 of the 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster did not ignite as expected, triggering an automatic shutdown of the remaining engines to prevent the rocket from taking off underpowered. Since the rocket did not leave the launch pad, this abort was not counted as an official Flight 13, and the relevant Polymarket market remains open.

Flight 13 was intended to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites for the first time and have the upper-stage Starship perform a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean after testing its engines, heat shield, and guidance system. Despite the last-second failure during this launch attempt, the automatic abort system functioned correctly. Musk stated on the 16th that to enhance the reliability of the next flight, SpaceX will replace two Raptor engines and is most likely to attempt the launch again early next week.

Disclaimer: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss actions after opening a position.

Account:
0x0b34b69b3acfcf19e589179e0c5894f78261f5a6

Total Investment: $2.7k
---------------------------------
See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN