Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor Industry Fundamentals Still Strong, Leveraged ETFs Amplify Tech Stock Volatility

BlockBeats News, July 14th, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that the recent intense volatility in global tech stocks was mainly due to a liquidity deleveraging caused by high-leverage trades, rather than a deterioration in the semiconductor industry's fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs stated that a new double-leverage ETF launched in South Korea has amplified market volatility. Several ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw single-day declines of over 30% at one point. The funds were forced to sell underlying stocks to maintain the leverage ratio, leading to a "price drop - forced selling - further decline" liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that about 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors came from the liquidation of such ETFs.

Meanwhile, the Leuthold Group pointed out that the U.S. margin debt balance has grown by about 54% in the past 12 months, reaching a historical high. Leverage capital is highly concentrated in the AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile.

However, Goldman Sachs believes that the semiconductor industry has not yet reached a cyclical peak. The institution noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been lowered. Due to constraints on storage chip production capacity, the supply shortage situation may continue until the second half of 2028. This round of correction is more like a position adjustment rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals.