Lost $1.32 million after failed gambling abstinence, a whale, silent for 46 days, invests $500,000 predicting “France to lose against Spain”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account that had previously lost over $1 million remained silent for 46 days and returned 24 hours ago. The account wagered $208.9k on "No" for "Will France Win on 2026-07-14?" and $281k on "Spain" for "France vs. Spain: Winning Team".

This account has participated in a total of 277 settled transactions, with a cumulative P&L of -$1.3243 million, a win rate of 48%, and a median transaction size of $27.2k.

The account has been active primarily in sports categories such as the English Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, and European competitions, and had paused trading on May 28. 24 hours ago, the account resumed activity and bet against France in favor of Spain.

It's important to note that these two markets have significant settlement rule differences: "France Not Winning" only considers the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time; a draw or Spain winning both settle as "No", while extra time and penalty shootouts are not counted. On the other hand, "Spain to Advance" covers the path of a draw followed by a comeback in extra time or penalty shootout.

The World Cup semi-final will take place at Dallas Stadium at 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 15. The key narrative of this match is the 11th encounter between Mbappé and Yamaar; FIFA also specifically mentioned that this will be the sixth time Spain's coach Dela Fuente faces France in the semi-finals.

In the knockout stages, France has defeated Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco successively without conceding a goal, while Spain's journey has been more about "leaving it late": in their last two knockout games against Belgium and Portugal, Spain relied on Merino's late winning goals to progress.

Account:
0x3fd9a838ded6eb832baab3ccbcb5e934e3871ef0

Total Investment: $490k
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