JPMorgan: Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk Is Not Strategy Dumping, But Blockchain Adoption Bypassing Public Chains and Tokens

BlockBeats News, July 9th - The JPMorgan analyst team pointed out that the market views the Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan as a key risk to the crypto market, but this is not the main structural threat facing Bitcoin. The more fundamental risk is that tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned infrastructure without the need for a public blockchain. If this trend continues, the entire crypto ecosystem may face "structural degradation," leading to a slowdown in transaction activity, reduced liquidity, and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin. The analysts bluntly stated: In our view, the more significant risk comes from the way blockchain is being adopted in traditional finance by continuing to bypass public permissionless networks.

The analysts explained that institutions have so far shown a clear preference for permissioned chains due to their advantages in privacy, KYC/AML controls, governance, throughput, legal accountability, and regulatory certainty, posing a competitive threat to public chains like Ethereum. The widespread adoption of tokenized deposits, especially in the non-fungible form favored by regulators, could weaken the demand for stablecoins in institutional payments and settlements; initiatives such as the SWIFT blockchain project and CBDC projects like the digital Euro and digital RMB further strengthen regulated alternative solutions. In the $500 billion real-world asset tokenization market, while Ethereum currently holds a certain share, this is more likely a reflection of early experiments rather than long-term market structure - as institutional adoption grows, issuance, custody, settlement, and lifecycle management may increasingly be carried out on private or permissioned infrastructure that meets identity, confidentiality, and operational resilience requirements, with public blockchains only used for distribution and limited secondary transactions.