Morgan Stanley: Open-Source Weight Commercialization Leads to "Winner Takes All" Phenomenon SmartBrain's Price Target Raised to HK$2000, MiniMax's Price Target Cut to HK$300

BlockBeats News, July 8th, JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that currently competitive models in the market can expand adoption through open-source weights and monetize continuously through official APIs, partnership channels, enterprise deployment, and workflow products; while weaker models face faster price comparison and traffic diversion.

JPMorgan Chase raised its SmartSpectrum's revenue forecast for 2026 to 2030 by 3% to 9% and narrowed the adjusted loss forecast for 2026 and 2027 to RMB 3.711 billion and RMB 3.141 billion, respectively. In 2028, the previous loss forecast of RMB 1.287 billion was revised to a profit of RMB 2.367 billion. The target price was raised from HK$1800 to HK$2000, with a "Buy" rating maintained, believing that the performance of GLM—5.5/6, KimiK3, and DeepSeekV4.1 will be key observation points to determine whether SmartSpectrum can maintain its competitive advantage.

JPMorgan Chase lowered MINIMAX-W's (00100.HK) revenue forecast for 2027 to 2030 by 2% to 8%, with the target price lowered from HK$400 to HK$300. The rating was maintained as "Neutral," pointing out that the M3 model offers a permanent 50% discount, reflecting that the model has not yet formed a significant premium based on its leading domestic peers; it is believed that if MiniMax can narrow the capability gap, normalize the discount, sustain API usage, and demonstrate stronger workflow stickiness through MiniMaxCode, the outlook could turn positive.