The probability of France winning the championship has doubled since the start of the tournament, with a surge in new accounts flocking to the prediction market favoring their victory.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the past 3 days, dozens of new accounts have registered on Polymarket and bet on France to win the current World Cup. Among them, 3 new accounts have put in $230.8k on "yes" for "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", with the current "yes" probability at 33.1%.

The probability of France winning has risen from an initial 17% at the start of the tournament to the current 33%. The first level supporting the rise in France's price is the match results themselves: France won all three group stage matches, defeating Senegal, Iraq, and Norway; in the round of 32, they eliminated Sweden 3-0; in the round of 16, in a high-temperature and high-intensity match, they defeated Paraguay 1-0 through a Mbappé penalty, making it to the quarter-finals for the fourth consecutive World Cup.

The second level is Mbappé's form. ESPN reported that Mbappé has scored 7 goals in this World Cup, tying with Messi in the Golden Boot race; his total career World Cup goals have reached 19, just 1 goal away from Messi's World Cup historical record. For France, this means they not only have a strong overall lineup but also have a player in the knockout stages who can convert low-quality chances into victories.

France's next match will be on July 9 at 20:00 EST, facing Morocco in Boston. This is a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semi-final. Morocco has just eliminated Canada 3-0 and remains a strong opponent in terms of defensive discipline, physicality, and counterattacking ability; however, from a market perspective, France has avoided the additional variables on the other side containing England, Norway, Argentina, and Colombia, making their short-term path clearer compared to some other favorites.

Accounts:
0xa27449ceb0f484577e6b953b4b17060593071cd3
0xa8495626b2784b25325813e826148f820b73f644
0x81ef8cb9f75921beda5a0a6cd3c5c508ac6347f7

Total Investment: $230.8k
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