Ming-Chi Kuo: Foldable iPhone to replay iPhone X's playbook, launching late and facing supply constraints until year-end

BlockBeats News, July 5th, Tianfeng International Securities analyst Guo Mingji issued a statement indicating that the foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X scenario, meaning it could be unveiled alongside other models but with a later pre-order and official release date, with supply constraints potentially persisting until the end of 2026.

Looking at the stocking volume in the third quarter of 2026, the foldable iPhone is likely to mirror the 2017 iPhone X. In that year, the iPhone X was launched on September 12 alongside the iPhone 8/8 Plus. However, due to insufficient stock, its pre-order and official release dates were delayed to October 27 and November 3, respectively. Due to limited shipping volume in the third quarter, the foldable iPhone may also only open for pre-order and official sale in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Guo Mingji stated that based on discussions with telecom operators, sales channels, and resellers/grey market dealers, even if the foldable iPhone is priced as high as around $2300 to $2500, the demand is expected to continue at least until the end of 2026. This suggests that the foldable iPhone may quickly sell out after pre-orders open, leading to a shipping wait time potentially stretching to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer, lasting until December. He believes that the initial scarcity of the foldable iPhone, its high visual recognition, and innovative user experience could drive up short-term resale prices, and if the resale price is 50% to 100% higher than the official price, it is not out of the question.