Next Week Market Outlook: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes in Focus, Market Awaits Interest Rate Hike Path and Gold Price Movement

BlockBeats News, July 5th – Next week, the global market will see the release of the minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting, the European Central Bank meeting minutes, and several important economic data points. The market will pay close attention to the Fed's latest assessment of inflation and the interest rate path, as well as key data such as the U.S. services PMI and initial jobless claims. Gold prices may remain range-bound in the short term. The key points include:

· Fed Meeting Minutes: To be released early Thursday morning Beijing time. The market hopes to find more details from the minutes of the meeting chaired for the first time by the new Fed Chair Powell, in order to assess whether there is still room for a rate hike by the end of the year. The current market pricing already factors in a 25 basis point hike in December, with some probability seen for an early action in October.

· Fed Officials Speeches: Officials such as Williams, Logan, and Waller will speak successively. The market will be watching to see if they adjust their hawkish stance due to the recent soft nonfarm payrolls data.

· ECB Minutes: To be released on Thursday, investors will focus on the ECB's latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and future monetary policy.

· RBNZ Rate Decision: The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike with an 80% probability and will be watching to see if the central bank follows through with its previous hawkish guidance.

· Important Economic Data: U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims data will be released successively, providing new clues for the market to assess the U.S. economic and interest rate outlook.

· Gold Outlook: HSBC believes that with real interest rates remaining high and the U.S. dollar showing strength, gold prices may remain range-bound in the short term. However, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global de-dollarization trend continue to support the long-term bullish thesis.

· Earnings Season Kickoff: Companies such as PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, among others, will be the first to report second-quarter earnings. The market will be focused on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year guidance, setting the stage for the mid-July bank earnings season.